ADB Forecasts People’s Republic of China’s Economy to Grow 4.8% this Year

MANILA — The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) economy is forecast to grow 4.8% this year, amid a recovery of household consumption, ongoing property market adjustment, and weak external demand, according to the Asian Development Outlook April 2024, released today by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

Growth is projected to moderate from a 5.2% expansion last year. An uncertain external macroeconomic environment, together with trade tensions, may affect demand for the PRC’s exports. Growth will further moderate to 4.5% next year.

“An increase in household consumption should help drive economic growth this year, as the labor market and household income improve,” said ADB Country Director for the PRC Safdar Parvez. “Effective measures to resolve property sector problems and strengthen private investment and household consumption should be enhanced this year to support growth momentum.”

Investment is expected to be supported by strong public infrastructure spending, boosted by fiscal expansion, while high-tech and other manufacturing investments should continue to grow solidly on the back of policy support. However, subdued consumer and investor sentiment in the property sector are expected to persist.

Inflation is forecast to rise to 1.1% in 2024, as the economy continues to recover. With food prices—particularly for pork—bottoming out and energy prices increasing, overall price movements should steer away from deflation. Inflation should increase further to 1.5% in 2025, assuming domestic demand continues to recover.

Risks to the outlook include further deterioration in the property market, which could undermine financial stability. Recurrent financial market turbulence can also dampen consumer sentiment. External risks include increased trade tensions with the United States and European Union weakening the PRC’s exports; escalated geopolitical tensions that may disrupt supply chains; renewed energy challenges triggered by geopolitical conflict; and fragmentation of the global economy.

ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members—49 from the region.