ADB Raises 2022 Growth Forecast for the Philippines

MANILA — The Philippine economy is forecast to grow faster than initially expected in 2022, following the relaxation of COVID-19 mobility restrictions in the country, the expansion of the COVID-19 vaccination program, and a rebound in investment and household consumption, according to a report released today by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2022 Supplement says the Philippine economy will grow at least 6.5% in 2022, up from the bank’s April forecast of 6.0%. The growth projection for 2023 remains at 6.3%. Downside risks to growth in the second half of 2022 may come from sharper-than-expected slowdowns in major industrial economies, possible sustained elevated global commodity prices, and tighter financial conditions.

“The Philippine economy’s growth momentum has accelerated close to its ideal growth path,” said ADB Philippines Country Director Kelly Bird. “Strong domestic demand supported by a pick-up in employment and remittance inflows, private investment expansion, and large public infrastructure projects will underpin the country’s recovery from the economic impact of the pandemic.”

Wider COVID-19 vaccination coverage, with adolescents among those getting inoculated, and relatively mild health impacts from the Omicron variant have allowed the government to relax restrictions starting in the first quarter of the year. This in turn spurred a resumption in expanded operations for most private businesses, with the unemployment rate falling to near pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate was at 6.0% in May 2022, down from 7.7% a year earlier.

Inflation is forecast to quicken to 4.9% and 4.3% in 2022 and 2023, respectively, on the back of higher global commodity prices. These are up from ADB’s April forecast of 4.2% in 2022 and 3.5% for 2023.

The government is expected to sustain public spending on priority infrastructure projects under the “Build Build Build” program. Among these priority projects receiving ADB financing are the Malolos Clark Railway Project and South Commuter Railway Project, both part of the North–South Commuter Railway System that will provide safe, fast, and efficient transportation to link Metro Manila to northern and southern Luzon provinces.

ADB is also financing the EDSA Greenways Project, which aims to improve the pedestrian experience along the main EDSA thoroughfare in the capital and the Metro Manila Bridges Project, which seeks to help solve traffic congestion in the metropolis.

ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members—49 from the region.