China appears preparing for quiet exit from “Zero-COVID” policy, many cities further relax COVID curbs amid challenges

China’s capital Beijing on Tuesday further relaxed some COVID curbs, doing away with the requirement of negative COVID-19 test to enter supermarkets, commercial buildings, airports, etc., the latest in a raft of measures adopted to relax its dreaded “dynamic zero” COVID policy nationwide after historic public protests against it. State media reported at least 19 cities across China, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Wuhan have scrapped negative COVID testing requirements for riding public transport. However, a negative test result is still needed to enter hospitals, schools, restaurants, and gyms, etc.

A big shift in China’s “Zero-COVID” policy began on November 30 when southern metropolis of Guangzhou abruptly ended most lockdowns despite reporting high number of daily cases. The same day, a number of major cities including Shenzhen, and capital Beijing also declared an easing of certain Covid controls, such as ending community lockdowns, allowing businesses to reopen, and halting mass nucleic acid testing.

China announced an “optimized” Zero-COVID policy on Nov 11, but the local authority could not implement that due to sudden rise in cases and confusing guidelines. This was followed by historic protests nationwide against the lockdowns and stringent “Zero-COVID” policy which began to mourn the deaths of 10 people in a fire in Xinjiang’s capital Urumqi which apparently happened due to lockdown restrictions in a building and spread to many cities by Nov 27.
On Nov 30, end of lockdown in Guangzhou coincided with China’s Vice Premier Sun Chunlan, who is senior official to handle country’s pandemic response under “Zero-Covid” regime, saying that China’s battle against the virus “is facing new circumstances that come with new tasks” as the omicron variant becomes less pathogenic.

State media suddenly increased the public messaging that virus lethality has gone down in an attempt to prepare the public for the new reality of living with high number of COVID cases. Health officials also said that they are working to increase the number of ICU beds in hospitals to deal with any rise in hospitalization as China in last three years directed its resources on mass testing and quarantine rather than overhauling its health infrastructure to deal with COVID-19.
This flurry of announcements and actions and removal of negative COVID test requirement in some cases despite high number of daily cases is seen as the significant first step towards a quiet exit from President Xi’s signature Zero-COVID policy.

Many challenges still remain though in a full reopening of the country which includes ramping up the medical facilities with the ICU beds, vaccinating the population over 80 years of age, of which only 40% took a booster dose and avoiding confusions during the transition to the new reality.

This will also ease the expenditure burden of COVID tests on provincial governments which are struggling to pay the billions overdue to testing companies. Even though it’s a good sign, experts said economic rebound may still take some time.

Despite negative impact on social and economic life in China, President Xi justified the policy at the 20th Party Congress held in mid-October.

In the aftermath of the historic protests against the COVID-19 curbs, experts say death of former leader Jiang Zemin on Nov 30 might also have put the government under pressure as public gatherings for mourning could transform into another wave of protests. This had happened earlier after reformist leader Hu Yaobang died and crowds gathering to mourn his death transformed into the Tiananmen Square protest movement. Incidentally, Jiang Zemin rose to power after Tiananmen era and is viewed as a symbol of China’s integration with the outside world and its prosperity in contrast with the increasing isolation and slowing economy due to restrictive “Zero-COVID” policy.

“China has been constantly optimizing its COVID-19 response and protecting people’s lives and health while aiming to minimize the COVID impact on social and economic development,” Mao Ning, spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said at the daily press conference on Monday.

State media reported Chinese public health experts are discussing the necessity of downgrading the management of the COVID-19 response, considering the weaker virulence of Omicron and that the majority of ongoing infections are mild or asymptomatic cases.

Tong Zhaohui, a respiratory critical care expert and director of the Beijing Institute of Respiratory Disease, was quoted as saying in media reports on Monday that the Omicron strain causes much lower rates of severe cases and deaths compared with wild types and strains of concern. Compared with the 2009 global flu season, the current severe case ratio amid COVID-19 is relatively lower.

But few health experts also warned that if medical resources are heavily strained or allocated in inappropriate ways, poor management could lead to surging deaths, according to state media report.