Professor Paul Behrens, from the Oxford Martin School, was one of nine experts invited to deliver evidence at the UK’s first-ever National Emergency Briefing on the climate and nature crises, held last week. Before an audience of over a thousand MPs, senior civil servants, industry bosses, and civic leaders, he outlined the urgent need to reform the UK food system – and the diverse benefits this would bring for farmers, the public and nature.
The UK is far from being food self-sufficient, importing between 40-50% of the food it consumes each year. For decades, globalised and highly industrialised supply chains have largely insulated consumers from shocks. But as the effects of climate change and environmental damage begin to hit, the cracks in this system are widening.
For generations, a stable climate has given us reliable harvests. That era is over. We are facing an increasingly chaotic system in which droughts, floods, and heatwaves strike more regularly, across multiple major food-producing regions at the same time (as research led by Oxford predicts). Estimates suggest the world could lose up to a third of its food-producing land by the end of this century without decisive action. The resulting climate pressures will mean marked price rises across the food sector. Many of the collapses of civilizations through history have been driven by climatic impacts on food. We ignore this lesson at our peril.
The UK is not immune to these pressures. Roughly a quarter of our imported food – especially critical fruit and vegetables – arrives from Mediterranean countries, a region which is experiencing desertification from rising heat. At home, more than 80% of UK farmers worry about the impact of climate change on their livelihoods, having seen three of the five worst cereal harvests on record this decade. Farmers are already suffering a mental health crisis, with many leaving the industry for good. Whistle-blowers from within the UK food industry are alarmed, warning that the current threat level to food systems is on a scale never seen before.
The future of food can be win-win
Dietary shifts in high-income countries are not only essential for a liveable planet, but they come with countless other wins.
Fortunately, the research is crystal clear on what is needed. A Great Food Transformation with four main pillars: shifting to plant-rich diets, reductions in waste, improvements in production, and increases in resilience. However, one pillar is far bigger than the others. Across the scientific literature, the biggest opportunity in high-income countries is plant-rich diets.
Animal agriculture is a major driver of nature loss, climate change, water and air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, and increased potential for pandemics. In short, food production, especially animal agriculture, is contributing to the very instability that threatens it.
In the UK, we have made the first steps towards reforming farming incentives to improve the environment, from habitat creation to agroforestry, but it’s urgent that we support a shift to plant-rich diets.
Dietary shifts in high-income countries are not only essential for a liveable planet, but they come with countless other wins. The dietary shift we often model in our research still has animal products with dairy food each day, a red meat burger every two weeks, and a chicken breast once a week. In the many wins I describe below, it is this diet I refer to, although it should be said that the greater reduction in animal products consumed, the greater the gains.
The first major win from this plant-rich diet is a ~60% reduction in agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in high-income countries. We would also have much more land available, since around 80% of agricultural land globally is currently used for rearing livestock or producing food for them. In the UK, this shift would free up an area almost the size of Scotland. Plants are just far more efficient.
Just think of all the opportunities on that land. Our research has found that we could double the climate benefits mentioned above by drawing down carbon onto that land. The recovery in biodiversity would be remarkable. In an era of climate uncertainty, we could use the newly available land to grow other crops to feed ourselves. Based on our research, the UK could be far more self-sufficient and resilient to shocks. We would also reduce a major source of river and air pollution – animal excreta and fertilizers (in the UK, around 40% of arable land is used to grow feed for animals) — while boosting wildlife and wildflower populations.
If we follow a business-as-usual approach, we need to brace ourselves for strained supply chains, rising costs, and civil unrest.
We would also feel the health benefits ourselves. There is ample evidence that these diets are associated with reduced risks of a wide range of chronic diseases, including obesity, strokes, cancer, heart disease, and diabetes. Shifting to plant-based diets would save the NHS billions and would improve national productivity.
People may ask, ‘What about the farmers?’ Farmers are increasingly feeling the impact of climate change. In the UK, we have made the first steps towards reforming farming incentives to improve the environment, from habitat creation to agroforestry, but it’s urgent that we support a shift to plant-rich diets. Our research has found that farmers could see more stable or higher incomes while delivering public goods: cleaner water, richer biodiversity, healthier produce, and carbon storage. Done well, this could spark a rural renaissance.
The need for action
We can take inspiration from Denmark, who are reaping the benefits from heavy investment in wind power throughout the 1990s and are now beginning to do the same with food. In October 2023, they launched a ‘Plant-based Foods Action Plan’ which invests across the food supply chain, from funding food producers to offering courses for chefs. They are aiming to earn billions in plant-rich exports.
The single most effective thing we can all do immediately is to rethink our diets – particularly meat and dairy products.
This gets at a key point: price and availability largely drive our decisions. Subsidies, incentives, and government policies inform those prices and availability. This is what needs radical, rapid change. To this end, there are excellent proposals in The National Food Strategy, commissioned by the UK Government. But, so far, there has been very limited Government adoption of its recommendations.
Diet can be a highly personal and sensitive issue that many find difficult to confront. But diets and foods have always changed, and changed rapidly. (Who had heard of avocado toast pre-2010?) And if we don’t lead with dietary change, we will ultimately be forced into change through climate impacts. The climate crisis can seem overwhelming. But rethinking what is on our plate is one of the most impactful things that individuals can do — we vote on it three times a day. While systemic changes in the food environment are essential, many of us can start right now, with our very next meal.
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